The unintended consequence of restricting 3rd party data is that the Web may become a much harder place for brands to cultivate new customers from. 

Large platforms - Amazon, Facebook, TikTok - will likely supersede the Web as THE environments to access new audiences. In other words, without cookies and retargeting across the Web, brands may have to buy/rent more of that audience attention from the big platforms. 

It seems almost inevitable that brands will end up spending more of their acquisition budgets with the big attention platforms; Facebook, TikTok, Google/Youtube in the coming period of time. 

This dynamic should also benefit Amazon. 

From analysis by Totem in 2020, more than 60% of DTC brands did not have presence on Amazon. While there has been a strong cultural aversion among DTCs to go there, the coming year+ may persuade them to get on platform, in order to expand sales and reduce CAC. While DTC brands may still covet direct customer relationships, conversion costs of Amazon may end up being too attractive to pass up.

And, while Facebook might be failing as an ecommerce channel currently, it could flip a switch at some point and make it much harder to convert traffic outside of its network. Imagine if it costs 5-10x to link outside Facebook. If that comes to pass, then brands will want to redouble efforts with Facebook Shops.

Amazon has been working hard to accommodate and lure DTC brands onto its platform, making it a more high-quality environment. In 2021, Amazon purged 50,000 low quality sellers. More recently, it has been testing new features to acknowledge local champions (with a program to allow boutique, local sellers to display badges). These efforts should intensify as Amazon needs to fill up its spare capacity (the capacity it over-built in 2020-21), with new brands.